All About Oregon Ducks » Playoff rankings thoughts

DuckInTheMountains · 11/10/2021 1:48 pm

Re: Head to head discussions.

There's a lot of silliness going around because Oregon is ahead of tOSU based on head to head, but Michigan is ahead of MSU.

1. They are not equivalent. There are the following differences:
A. Oregon won head to head on the road. MSU won head to head at home.
B. Oregon controlled the game, won by a full touchdown, and was ahead by two scores well into the fourth quarter. tOSU stayed in the game but never looked like the better team. MSU had an amazing comeback and managed to win by 4 points. For most of the game UM looked like the better team.
C. The teams with the better resume are ranked higher. Ohio State and Oregon both have a single game against a team the committee has ranked. Oregon won theirs on the road, Ohio State lost theirs at home. MSU has two games against ranked teams, which they split (beat UM at home, lost to Purdue on the road). UM won at Wisconsin and lost at MSU, both road games.

2. It's all irrelevant.

A. If tOSU wins out and Oregon doesn't, tOSU will be ahead. If Oregon wins out and tOSU doesn't, Oregon will be ahead. If tOSU wins out and Oregon wins out, tOSU will have quality wins against UM, MSU, Purdue, and probably Wisconsin that they don't have now. Oregon will have 2 sort-of-quality wins against Utah. If both win out, tOSU will be ahead of Oregon in the rankings because of a much stronger resume. It makes sense for Oregon to be ahead now because there's not a huge difference between the two teams' resumes right now, so head to head is an obvious difference maker. If that shifts (which it would if both teams win out), head to head becomes less important. So the fact that Oregon is ahead right now isn't really all that important.

B. It's similar with MSU and UM, if one wins out and the other doesn't, the one that wins out will be ahead, so it doesn't matter which is ahead right now. If both win out, both will have added wins against tOSU and Penn State, MSU will also have added a win against probably Wisconsin in the B1G championship game but UM will be left out. MSU will be ahead of UM in that case. There's a difference between their resumes right now that overrides head to head but that difference will be reversed if both keep winning.

We're not safe.

I've read several things suggesting that if we just win out, we're in, because we are third and so we'll protect our ranking by just winning. That's the way the AP and coaches polls work but that's not the way the committee works. They jump people around all the time.

Even if we win out:
1. tOSU will pass us if they win out, due to all the quality wins they would have.
2. Oklahoma will pass us if they win out beating Baylor, IaSt, OkSt, and OkSt again in the B12 championship while we are playing mostly mediocre P12 teams. Oklahoma might pass us if they lose to OkSt and then get revenge in the championship game, if our Ohio State win gets devalued by tOSU losing to the Michigan schools.
3. Both MSU and UM might pass us if they both win out. Both would add wins against PSU and tOSU (which would also devalue our big win) and MSU would have a conference championship win against a better team than we'll play in ours. I'd say MSU would definitely pass us and UM might.
4. Cincinnati might pass us if they win out and tOSU loses a couple games to the Michigan schools, devaluing our resume headliner.

I think in all probability we're in if we win out, though it will hurt if all our wins are squeakers. We don't need blowouts but we need to control games, put teams away, and win by a couple scores or more. I think we'll get enough help elsewhere that if we do that, we're probably in. We might even get a 2 or 3 seed, if Alabama drops a game to Auburn or UGA.

DucksReign · 11/10/2021 6:18 pm

Style points matter.

Only one of the three teams...luckeyes, MSU and Michigan can get to the Big Ten Championship Game. Just can't see a team which doesn't win its Division let alone reach the conference championship somehow makes the Playoffs.

Otherwise the only ranking which ultimately matters is the last one that determines the Final Four.

DuckInTheMountains · 11/11/2021 5:45 am

I agree that style points matter. But I wonder if we tend to overrate it.

Oregon is currently rated #3 and has hardly racked up the style points. tOSU is fourth and certainly neglected to rack up the style points in some of their games against weak competition. We're there not because of style points but because we went on the road and beat one of the top 5 teams in the nation. They are there because they have beat some decent teams (PSU, Minnesota) and their only loss is to a top 5 team. We're both being rewarded, no doubt, for playing a real OOC game.

Oklahoma would no doubt be rated higher if they had more style points, but the big thing holding them back is that they've played nobody any good.

I'm not sure I agree with you on the B1G East situation. I'm particularly concerned about both UM and MSU winning out. If that happens, we probably only have one win against a ranked team, but they'd be ranked around 15, probably. MSU would win the B1G and easily be in the playoffs, probably ranked 2nd (assuming UGA beats Alabama, that is). UM would have more quality wins than us, even without a conference championship game, and their loss would be against #2 MSU rather than against Stanford.

In this scenario, MSU would beat probably Wisconsin in the B1G championship on a neutral site -- but UM already pounded Wisconsin on the road, won at PSU, and beat Ohio State at home. If we win out, all we'd have to match against that is a road win against Ohio State (who would have 3 losses), and a PAC championship against Utah, who would finish with 5 losses. I'm not saying they'd pass us but it's not very comfortable. I'd like to think the committee would reward us for having the guts to go on the road against tOSU, and even more for winning it, but I'm not so sure. It really hurts us that the PAC South all decided to lose to SDSU and BYU this year, it means the conference championship just isn't going to be worth that much in the PAC this year.

Our best scenario is probably that tOSU beats both the Michigan schools, giving them each 2 losses, but loses to Purdue, then beats Wisconsin in the B1G championship. That should put us ahead of all B1G teams but still keep tOSU in the top 5-6, and give us credit for a top quality OOC win.

DucksReign · 11/11/2021 7:23 am

Style points matter more the last month of the season when the Playoff Selection Committee really has to find ways to narrow the possibilities down to 4 teams.

Schedule matters too in the last month. I kind of laugh when I read(in many places) "Oklahoma hasn't beaten anybody." Well, Oregon may go an entire season with only beating 1 "somebody" and it was out of conference and the second game of the season.

Oregon's problem is they have zero meaningful games remaining including a Pac-12 Championship Game.

Oklahoma did beat a then Top 25 team, Texas and their remaining games are against a previously ranked Iowa State and 2 currently highly ranked teams, Baylor and Oklahoma State.

Most every team capable of making the playoffs has big games remaining against quality opponents except Oregon.

Thus I think Oregon's best chance is to win BIG in every remaining game including the Pac-12 Championship Game while these other teams cancel each other out. So when it comes time to choose the Final Four, Oregon "looks good" with 1 loss compared
to many others (Oklahoma, luckeyes, MSU, Michigan...maybe Bama if they lose to Georgia) with 2 or 3 losses.

Because there is nothing in Oregon's remaining schedule that "looks good" so the Ducks need to REALLY LOOK GOOD.

Last edited by DucksReign (11/11/2021 7:26 am)

DuckInTheMountains · 11/11/2021 8:44 am

Good thoughts. I totally agree that Oklahoma will pass us if they win out. The committee is giving them no respect now because they haven't beat anyone yet, but as you said, that will change.

I don't think style points will help us stay ahead of OU if they win out.

I do think they could help us stay ahead of Cincy. They might help us stay ahead of UM if they win out but finish behind MSU.

I also think that style points is relative. We're playing decent teams (WSU and OSU) and actually a team that is putting it together and is probably pretty good (Utah). I don't think we need 30 point wins. I don't think 3 point wins are going to do it against the Cougs and Beavs, but 2 TD wins are probably going to be pretty good. I'll take any win at Utah, I don't care if it's only by a FG. I think a dominating win the PAC championship would be very, very good.

Phil · 11/12/2021 8:05 am

Is Alabama still a concern if they lose to Georgia and finish at 2 losses? I sure hope not and they shouldn't.

If Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Alabama win out is it game over for us? That seems like one of the worst scenarios at this point.

I agree that we don't need 20+ wins, but we can't be winning ugly every week. Last week's game was received well nationally.

Jiffy Jeff · 11/12/2021 8:42 am

Because this "playoff" is truly an invitational, you should always be concerned about Alabama. One of their championships occurred in a season where they did not even win their own division. If that seems minor, consider that their first playoff game occurred with plenty of time after the Iron Bowl since they did not suffer the attrition and such from a championship game. And the Iron Bowl was coming off a "win" vs the late season FBS sacrificial lamb, so they basically won less than eight conference games... They played one game between Thanksgiving and the New Year... Fresher legs and team and no wonder they outperformed the field that year.

The invitational is about ratings, nothing more. They want the Southeast and the Midwest tuning in with the hope that a Texas team can make it. Oregon is a national brand and right now the optics of having them in the top four is being used by the committee to legfitimize their though process, but IMO the committee would rather find a way to get the B1G winner in the field with two SEC teams and the B12 champ over a one-loss P12 champ.

DuckInTheMountains · 11/12/2021 8:48 am

I think yes, if tOSU, Oklahoma, and Bama win out we're in trouble. Unless UGA manages to lose to Tennessee this week -- then I don't think there's any legit path to 2 SEC teams ahead of us.

And I'd say in that scenario, tough. We shouldn't have lost to Stanford. When you are in a very weak conference, which we are this year, you don't have margin for error. We didn't have to lose that game. We lost it through mental mistakes in the last five minutes of the game, both by players and coaches..

If Utah had beat BYU and SDSU, it would be a better story, then two wins against them would be worth a lot.

Dream scenario is tOSU loses to Purdue and then wins out, Alabama loses to both Auburn and UGA (just to make sure), Oklahoma loses to Baylor and splits with OkSt (one wins regular season, the other wins B12 championship), and we get the #2 seed against #3 Cincy, with 2 loss tOSU having to be the 4th seed against UGA.

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11/10/2021 1:48 pm #1

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