DuckInTheMountains wrote:

Games of note this weekend.

Usual caveat, we have to keep winning.  But we definitely are in the hunt.

PAC
Utah @ Stanford.  Stanford winning makes our loss look less bad.  Utah winning means a win for us in Utah will look better.  Not sure which outcome is best for us.
OSU @ Colorado.  Definitely good if OSU were to get to 8 wins before we face them.
USC @ ASU.  Best if ASU wins some games so that if Utah lets them into the PAC championship they are a credible opponent.

SEC
Auburn @ aTm.  If Auburn wins out they might have a case even with two losses.  In an ideal world they lose this and then beat Alabama.
LSU @ Bama.  Unlikely this goes our way but a team with a fired coach can be dangerous.
Liberty @ Ole Miss.  Ole Miss probably wins this easily but a Liberty win would pretty significantly undercut Bama's best win so far.

B12
OkSt @ WVU.  OkSt might not be able to pass us but they could become a quality win for Oklahoma, so it would be nice to discredit them, and WVU has scared some teams.

B1G
Ohio State @ Nebraska.  It's probably best for us that Ohio State wins this game.  On the other hand, if they are going to lose one conference game this year, this would be a great one for them to lose.
Michigan State @ Purdue.  Pretty much a long shot but it would be great if Purdue won this.

ACC
Wake Forest at UNC.  Wake's schedule is incredibly weak but I don't like the committee having to choose between 1 loss Oregon and undefeated Wake.  Go UNC.

Others
SMU @ Memphis.  SMU losing this would further weaken Cincy's schedule.
Navy @ Notre Dame.  Navy winning would ding Cincy's only quality win very badly. 
Boise is not a state @ neither is Fresno.  Fresno could be top 20 and maybe even top 15 by the time the committee makes its final decision.  The higher, the better.

 

Utah looked really good last night. They sure look like they'll be the team we would face in the Pac title. 

 

Well, down goes Wake, so that's one less undefeated team; even if they win out and are ACC champs, I doubt they jump us. Sparty having a tough time with the Boilermakers right now...we can hope.

Alabama is down right now!

Ok, I'm just a guy who is wrong a lot but I'll give my view on how the games this week affected possible outcomes in the playoff hunt.

Starting With the Stuff that Didn't Help

PAC 
Utah hammered Stanford.  I think there's a strong possibility Utah is ranked by the committee this week.  So that sets up a chance for us to beat a ranked team on the road.  The win also means Utah is almost certainly the PAC South champion, which means we'd get them twice.  If we beat them twice (which is what needs to happen for us to be in the playoff hunt), they won't be ranked any more.  Our best chance of getting a ranked opponent was ASU, but Utah's win probably ended any chance of that.

The Beavs could have done us a favor by winning the rest of their games until the Civil War.  Nope, they dropped one to Colorado.  That's not helpful.  The PAC continues to be unhelpful in just about every way.

I don't think any other games in the PAC really mattered much.  We just aren't going to have a quality win from the PAC.  If we win out, the best opponent record from the PAC North is going to be 7-5.  If UCLA wins out we'll have a conference win over an 8-4 team that probably will sneak into the rankings.

MWC
Fresno State did us no favors, getting hammered by BSU.  That means not only will they be unranked this week, they probably also won't get into the MWC championship game.  We might go into the final playoff decision with only one win over a ranked team.  The path for FSU to win the MWC and get a ranking somewhere near 20 is not too far-fetched but they need some real help to get there.

Things that Helped

B1G
Purdue over Michigan State.  This was huge.  There is still a risk that 2 BIG schools can get ahead of us with quality wins but it is far lessened now.  OSU only finishes ahead of us if they win out, which would now knock out both Michigan schools.  MSU can still probably finish ahead of us if they win out (PSU, OSU, and B1G championship) but that would knock out OSU.  MSU was the team with some margin for error, and that margin is gone.  There's even a reasonable chance that all of these teams finish with 2 or more losses.

Illinois over Minnesota.  This may not matter much but the committee was giving OSU credit for a quality win over Minnesota (somewhat comparable to our Fresno State win).  That's gone.  Minnesota isn't likely to be ranked this week.

Ohio State over Nebraska.  I wouldn't mind seeing Ohio State lose another, as we've discussed, but this is still probably good for us.  I don't much mind if they get a higher seeding than us as long as we keep getting credit for a top 3 win on the road.

ACC
UNC over Wake Forest.  Wake might have been a threat if they stayed unbeaten.  They didn't.  There is no way any ACC team gets in this year over a one-loss Oregon now.

SEC
USC over Florida.  Probably doesn't matter much but people gave Bama credit for a close win on the road over a "tough" Florida team.  Maybe not so much.

Arkansas over Mississippi State.  The committee considered Mississippi State a top team and a quality win for Alabama.  This undercut that narrative somewhat.

Ole Miss struggled to put away Liberty.

Alabama over LSU, barely.  The case for Alabama as #2 just suddenly doesn't look so compelling.  Florida win?  Not so impressive.  Ole Miss?  Maybe not really that great.  MSU?  Yeah, but they lost to Arkansas.  Lots of games this week that weakened their case, and barely dodging a bullet against a mediocre LSU team didn't help them.  Ultimately, if they win out they are in.  But the case for a 2 loss Alabama to be ahead of us looks very flimsy now.

aTm over Auburn.  I was really glad to see this.  If Auburn had won out, the case for a 2 loss Auburn would have been very strong, actually.  

B12
TCU over Baylor.  This was really helpful.  Oklahoma has neither style points nor quality wins, that's why they are ranked so low despite being undefeated.  They have four remaining shots at quality wins.  If Baylor had won this, they'd have probably been ranked about 10 going into their game with Oklahoma next week.  Now, they'll be closer to 20.  It's just not going to have the same credibility for OU to beat them.  It also, in my thinking, increases the chance of Baylor winning.  Their only way to a top bowl game now is to beat Okie, they will be mad that they lost, they can rescue their season with a win, they'll be on fire.

Cincy-related
Cincy barely beat a bad Tulsa team.  Not winning many style points with that.

SMU lost to a mediocre Memphis team.  No chance they'll be ranked now.  They are still dangerous and Cincy could still lose to them but won't get much credit for beating them.

Houston struggled to beat a poor USF team.  Nothing here to say Houston (Cincy's likely opponent in the AAC championship game) deserves a high ranking.  Like SMU, they are still dangerous to Cincy but won't be a huge resume booster.

Summary
1. The chances of 2 SEC teams finishing ahead of us are less.
2. The chances of 2 B1G teams finishing ahead of us are less.
3. I think yesterday hurt Cincy's chances of passing us.
4. I think Oklahoma and maybe OkSt are still a legitimate threat to pass us if they win out but losses for Baylor / IaSt / OkSt undercut that.

We can use a little more chaos but we got a lot of help in small ways, and in one big way at Purdue, yesterday.  I'd say our chances if we win out are now much greater than 50% to get in.

Games that might matter if we win out:

Cincy @ USF.  It would be cool if Cincy actually lost this but I'm not sure we need that.  USF played Houston and BYU close and this game is at USF.  Cincy has had several close games in a row which isn't helping them at all, if it happens again against a 2-7 team.

Miss St @ Auburn.  For those who are afraid of a 2 loss Alabama team, having Auburn take another loss will somewhat undercut Bama's strength of schedule.  

UCF @ SMU.  Every SMU loss makes their game less valuable to Cincinnati.  I'm rooting for UCF here.

Oklahoma @ Baylor.  There's a strong possibility that we need Oklahoma to lose to get into the playoffs.  This would be a great time for that to happen.

Michigan @ Penn State.  Michigan is perhaps the only team that could pass us without getting into a conference championship game.  We may need them to take another loss.  This would be a great time for that.

Minnesota @ Iowa.  It probably doesn't matter but a Minnesota win would strengthen tOSU's resume, so I guess an Iowa win is better for us.

Purdue @ Ohio State.  In an ideal world, Ohio State loses this and then beats the Michigan schools.  Since I don't know that they'll beat the Michigan schools, I think I prefer they just keep winning to bolster our resume.

Georgia @ Tennessee.  Keep an eye on this one.  Georgia's defense is great but they actually haven't really been tested by an explosive offense.  And if Tennessee does manage to put up some points, will UGA's offense keep pace?  I expect Georgia to win but won't be shocked if they are upset.  A Tennessee win would be great for us because it would pretty much guarantee only one SEC team ahead of a one-loss Oregon.

Maryland @ Michigan State.  Pretty unlikely Maryland wins this but they aren't a terrible team.  It would knock MSU out of the picture which would pretty much guarantee we would be ahead of all B1G teams except the UM/tOSU winner.

Stanford @ OSU.  It does us no good for Stanford to win this, it's a horrible loss on our record no matter what.  If Beavs win it and we face a 7-4 team in the Civil War, that's probably a plus.

UNM @ Fresno.  We could really use Fresno winning out.

aTm @ Ole Miss.  What if Alabama loses at Auburn and aTm wins out, including beating an unbeaten UGA in the SEC championship?  I would rather not find out, so I would rather Ole Miss wins this.

Notre Dame @ UVA.  Notre Dame has squeaked out a lot of close wins against mediocre teams.  UVA is a cut above mediocre, maybe.  If they win it really, really hurts Cincy's case to be ahead of us.  Go, UVA.

TCU @ OkSt.  So, I wouldn't even mention this because I couldn't see it happening, but after TCU beat Baylor last week, who knows?  This would knock OkSt out of contention which would be all to the good.

Colorado @ UCLA.  If UCLA wins out, they'll be ranked so our win over them will look better.

Nevada @ SDSU.  It's to our benefit if both of these teams pick up another loss.  Fresno has the tie-breaker over both of them, so if each lose, they are in the MWC championship game, which would be helpful for us (assuming they win it).  

Of course, none of these matter if we don't win out.  And depending on other results in coming weeks, a lot of them may not matter anyway.  But I think some of them might matter in some scenarios.

So Ducks are still #3 in the CFP, and I'm going out on a limb and saying if they win out, they'll be in the top 4. It wouldn't hurt to have Georgia beat Bama, and for tOSU to win out.

Games of note this weekend.

There's the really, really important games:
1. Oregon @ Utah.  I'll take any win here, a one-point win on the road would be ok with me.  A 2 TD win would be a really nice resume booster.

2. MSU @ tOSU.  If tOSU wins this game, it guarantees there will not be more than one B1G team with one loss, and a two-loss team won't be ahead of us.  It also bolsters our case against any challenge from Cincy, a B12 team, or a 2 loss Alabama team if tOSU wins.  All is not lost if they lose, but it's definitely to our advantage if they win this one.

3. Arkansas @ Alabama.  I wasn't high on this game helping us but Alabama was not impressive against LSU, so who knows?  It really, really helps us if Bama takes another loss and I'd be more comfortable if they take two, just because the committee obviously rates them really high.  I'm supporting the Razorbacks here.

There's the games that may not matter but I'd feel a lot better if they went our way:
4. SMU @ Cincinnati.  I still think there's a risk that unbeaten Cincy passes us.  Obviously if SMU beats them that threat is gone.

5. Ok St @ Texas Tech.  Tech is 6-4, it's a home game for them, stranger things have happened.  I don't think Ok St passes us but if they win out they'll be adding two quality wins, and I don't know how much the committee will value that, so I'd like to see them take another loss.

6. Iowa St @ Oklahoma.  Pretty much the same story as the Ok St game, I'd just feel a little happier if Oklahoma took another loss, and they are playing a legit team.

Perhaps the only ones that really matter are our game and MSU@tOSU, but the others going our way would sure make me happier.

Other games that might have an impact:
Memphis @ Houston.  Memphis beat Mississippi State so can be dangerous.  Houston is Cincy's last hope of a ranked opponent other than Notre Dame so if Memphis were to win, it would hurt Cincy.

SDSU @ UNLV.  Ok, it's a long shot, but UNLV has won 2 in a row, it's a home game, it would make their season, and surely Arroyo owes us.  If UNLV wins this it likely puts Fresno in the MWC championship where they would likely be favored, and likely end up ranked.

Illinois @ Iowa and Nebraska @ Wisconsin.  These two games can have a major impact on the B1G championship game which is likely to be relevant to the resume of a playoff contender.  If the underdogs win, the value of the championship game will be reduced.

Arizona @ WSU.  The committee liked our win over WSU.  It woudl be helpful if the Cougs validate that it was a good win by winning this and against Washingon.

UCLA @ USC.  Definitely to our advantage if UCLA wins out, they would likely be ranked.  Road wins against ranked teams are nice to have.

ASU @ OSU.  If Beavs win it increases the value of our game against them.

I don't think it's locked on that we're in if we win out, but Oklahoma's loss got us very close.  I think an Ohio State win this week would probably do it.  If the Buckeyes decide to lose their last two games we still may need help, against Cincy, a 1 loss B12 champion, and maybe 2 loss Bama.  So there may be scenarios in which most of these games matter. But I like our position a lot better this week than last week.