I suspect that they are out as it stands right now.  I also suspect that if they win the next three, including sweeping the AZ road trip, they'll be back in.  No doubt the committee hates bad losses, but they also love wins over top 5-10 teams on the road.  

No small task to sweep the next three, of course.  I thought out of these last 10 games they could probably afford 3 losses, but I wasn't counting on them losing one as bad as this one.  I suspect they can afford one more loss in the regular season, but no more.  Two more and they have to do some real damage in the tourney.  They might even have to win it.  Three more losses in the regular season and they certainly have to win it.

DucksReign wrote:

It appears the MBB has a case of "Cristobal's Disease" whereby you play to the level of the opponent.

Sadly what happened and it is the nature of men's basketball these days, too many one-dimensional players.

Look at Harmon's stat line today: 4 of 16(the most shots taken of any Oregon player) including 1-9 from 3 pt line; 37 minutes played(the most of any Oregon player); 2-3 FT; 0 rebounds and 2 assists.

What does that say? On the offensive side of the ball if he is not making his shots he had no other basketball skills to help the team today = one dimensional. Taking 16 FGs and only getting 3 FTs says you don't drive to the basket.

Contrasted with Richardson who had 9-13 FTs; 9 rebounds; 2 assists and made 50% of his FG attempts...which were fewer in total number taken than Harmon.

Richardson finished with 22 points to 11 for Harmon.

Otherwise, there is also the possibility of the teams ahead of Oregon "coming back" to them in the standings over the ensuing weeks by losing games as well(assuming Oregon is winning).

No team is full of "complete players" but the fewer you have the more difficult it is to sustain success. Oregon has plenty of talent but their record reflects the reality of their lacking in "complete players"...hence for every 3 games, they average winning 2 and losing 1.

IMO the above is today’s college game as long as the one-and-done policy continues to exist.  Guys who get their shot to play on a good team that may not make The Dance pressing to perform on their audition tape. 

I believe that if the college game adopts the baseball rule that we see guys like this dive into the developmental league where they can pursue the dream without the stress of school thereby opening up spaces for true student athletes…

https://duckswire.usatoday.com/2022/02/15/oregon-ducks-climb-back-into-ncaa-tournament-picture-with-win-over-washington-state/

Honestly.  I try to refrain from overly criticizing somebody who is trying to bring content regularly.  But I'm losing it with this guy.  

How could the California game be a "must win" if you are already back in after winning the next game?  How can the next one be "must win" in that case?

If all the games are "must win" then you sort of must win all of them, right?  You can't have loads of "must wins" that it's ok to lose some of them if you win the others.

If we beat ASU, sorry, the Arizona game is not going to be a must-win.  It just isn't.  If we win all but the Arizona game we're going to be in.  If we win the Arizona game we can probably afford to lose any one other game, possibly 2 of them, and still be in.  

The California game was not a must-win if we're back in after one more win.  This is simple logic and sanity.  Losing it wiped out a lot of our margin for error.  But you're only in must win territory if losing the game means you are out.  

/rant

A big game tonight. 

If the Ducks can win their next 3 they should be in the tournament. I'm a little doubtful they can, but you never know.

Of course if you believe Walton they should already be in simply because you want the best teams in the tournament. Bad home losses don't count and they're from the conference of champions and Walton doesn't want to hear about any other metrics. It's the same trope this time of the year for him arguing for half the conference to get in while constantly poking his fellow commentator and losing focus of the game at hand. 

They looked good against UCLA, but my goodness you have to hold your breath every time they inbound the ball. It's a sigh of relief if they can make it past the half court without a turnover or call against them.

Free throw percentage has been better as of late and so has rebounding. 

Hoping for the best tonight.  

I don't think this has been Altman's finest year either. Against USC at the end of the game he essentially yelled down to the USC bench and said, "You can dribble the ball up the court and take an uncontested three-point shot and we will just watch."

The season is hanging in the balance...YOU HAVE TO PRESSURE THE BALL from the moment it is inbounded.

Speaking of hanging in the balance...2 HUGE games going down to the end, Arizona and USC and Richardson doesn't even get a shot off in either???

With Arizona he refused to pass the ball to open teammates and against USC instead of taking a shot right when he caught the pass he dribbled right into the defender??? He initiated the contact.

Two key TEAM stats tell the story for this team....Assists they are 9th in the Pac-12 and Rebounds(on defense) they are 10th.

Note: They are 3rd in FGs and 5th in 3 PTs.

Who are the top 3 teams in Assists? Arizona, USC and UCLA! What a coincidence...they are the 3 best teams! In fact, one position higher(8th) than Oregon is oregon state?!? The beavers are having their worst year in school history and they are better at sharing the ball than Oregon?!?

Here is another shocker(sarcasm), the top 3 teams in rebounding are....Arizona, USC and UCLA!

This is arguably, in my opinion, one of the most selfish Oregon teams I have seen in a long time. They all want to play "hero ball"(Translation: shoot 3 pt shots).

There is always the Pac-12 Tournament (only chance to get into the NCAA Tournament) and Altman has proven his worth numerous times in that event...but this year I am skeptical the Ducks can play that consistently and unselfishly to win it.