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Oregon sitting at #6 needs, in my opinion besides the obvious of winning out...
TCU to lose to Texas or Baylor.
Tennessee has no more ranked regular season opponents. Nor can they make it to the SEC Championship Game without a major collapse by Georgia who is in their Division.
Thus Oregon can realistically leap over TCU and Tennessee if the above happens.
Otherwise...
Oregon has 2 ranked regular season opponents remaining and possibly 3 if osu gets back in there... currently they are in the "Other receiving votes" group.
The Pac-12 Championship Game should be 2 ranked teams.
Big Ten is hard to tell...if Michigan and the luckeyes win out until they meet and their rivalry game is one for the ages...I could see the Selection Committee keeping both in the Top 4.
Right now Illinois is the only ranked(#21) team in the West Division and they play at Michigan next week...so they could be unranked even IF they play in the B10 Championship Game.
It really is not inconceivable for Oregon to be in the Playoffs. TCU winning out and being undefeated could be the dagger for any Pac-12 team...because that would most likely mean going in over Michigan or the luckeyes.
It is going to be a very interesting next 3 weeks.
Last edited by DucksReign (11/08/2022 5:40 pm)
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My feeling is we are in if we win out. huskies are ranked, as is Utah and UCLA/USC will be ranked, plus we'll be a conference champion. Having said that, winning out won't be easy, but if we do, imo, we're in.
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I’m much more cynical about this whole process. I remember back in ‘01 in the early days of the BCS when the Ducks were on the outside of a champ game spot unless a whole host of highly improbable results from other games happened. Well, every single improbability came to fruit and at the end of the day the Ducks were sent to the Fiesta. We know the results. The Ducks waxed the Buffs, who a few weeks before curb stomped Nebraska, who ended up being totally overmatched by Miami in the BCS champ game. Only reason Nebraska was there was because a committee would rather the blue blood program with a Heisman winner in the spotlight than an up and coming program with little in the way of star power. This led to the somewhat infamous comment from Bellotti calling the BCS a cancer to college football.
I rant only to remind folks that the Playoff is nothing more than an invitational with a host of unwritten rules that takes away the ability of teams to control their destinies to a certain degree. In other words, Oregon and Tennessee can win out from here but Tennessee might be a sexier call in a smoke filled room than Oregon, even if Oregon had a conference title while the Vols would not have even won their division. You guys get what I’m saying, so rant over…
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Jiffy Jeff wrote:
I’m much more cynical about this whole process. I remember back in ‘01 in the early days of the BCS when the Ducks were on the outside of a champ game spot unless a whole host of highly improbable results from other games happened. Well, every single improbability came to fruit and at the end of the day the Ducks were sent to the Fiesta. We know the results. The Ducks waxed the Buffs, who a few weeks before curb stomped Nebraska, who ended up being totally overmatched by Miami in the BCS champ game. Only reason Nebraska was there was because a committee would rather the blue blood program with a Heisman winner in the spotlight than an up and coming program with little in the way of star power. This led to the somewhat infamous comment from Bellotti calling the BCS a cancer to college football.
I rant only to remind folks that the Playoff is nothing more than an invitational with a host of unwritten rules that takes away the ability of teams to control their destinies to a certain degree. In other words, Oregon and Tennessee can win out from here but Tennessee might be a sexier call in a smoke filled room than Oregon, even if Oregon had a conference title while the Vols would not have even won their division. You guys get what I’m saying, so rant over…
Good rant and spot on imo. As I’ve said a couple times recently, the #1 and ONLY thing on my mind right now is BEATING THE FUSKIES! Okay, short rant over.
G O D U C K S ! !
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Every system has flaws, but the Playoff Selection Committee has pretty much gotten it "right" every year. How many teams have been screwed by the Committee over the years?
Yes there have been "close calls" but personally I have never felt we were watching teams who did not deserve to be there...maybe a team or two also deserved to be there but the 4 teams in were deserving.
The fact the Committee members change and have included Oregon AD Rob Mullens as its third Chair...all things considered, it has been a transparent process.
The debate has been and continues to be the number of teams in the Playoffs.
Likewise, I have never felt in the final rankings after all the bowl games, etc. that the #12 team should have been in the Playoffs.
The 12-team Playoff does concern me because teams with multiple losses, didn't play for a conference championship, didn't win their Division, perhaps had some bad losses, etc. may get in.
Right now the path to get in isn't that murky...if you are a P5 team and go undefeated, you are in...which is why TCU is problematic for Oregon.
Also I think it is pretty clear, you have to win games you should in a CONVINCING manner. Close games with high caliber teams are "allowed."
The PSC has already shown this year that 4 Pac-12 teams...despite beating each other in some cases, are not being penalized in the rankings because, I believe, they "look good."
There is no better example than Oregon last year compared to this year. We didn't look like a Playoff team last year even counting the win against the luckeyes. This year we do or are MUCH CLOSER to what the PSC desires.